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Опубликовано в Forex central bank | Октябрь 2, 2012

forex weather samara on

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And they're going to be reanalyzing their supply chain. I talked to one CEO today that has systematically been mitigating their dependencies on China. And they've been moving more and more supply of chains into Mexico. And he said, now our biggest source of manufacturing is Mexico than China. So we're seeing this whole recalibration. And this recalibration is going to really determine how we go forward.

Can you say a little bit more about that path and what you mean? And globalization was the key, I would say economic policies, that people expanded and built. And globalization actually had many positive benefits. Right now it's not being discussed. More human beings were lifted out of poverty over the last 32 years than any period of time ever. And that was because of globalization. We learned that many supply chains would not function as well when people were-- when COVID hit a country and they had lockdowns and they could not have workers at a factory or in the shipping components, and we witnessed huge supply chain issues.

Now much of the supply chain issues we witnessed was as people were more in remote working, more and more people changed their consumption patterns away from services. We traveled less. We went to fewer restaurants during that period of time. But we spent our money on capital goods. And so much of the supply chain issues was we miscalculated how much demand there was going to be on so many products.

I think now with looking at the dependencies of Russia, focusing on the dependencies on other parts of the world, whether it's at China or somewhere else, I think there's another reassessment of the supply chains. And does it mean a deglobalization? Probably it does. When you talk about onshoring factories or nearshoring factories, that in itself is a deglobalizing process.

And so, because of the rise of nationalism, the rise of geopolitical tensions, and the need to have better supply chains, it means everybody's bringing them closer to where demand is. And that is a big reversal in how businesses built their platforms and businesses. And so a lot of that is being reassessed. And it does on the margin mean less globalization.

SAMARA COHEN: Does this rewiring of the global economy that you're describing impact your assessment or the CEOs and policymakers that you're talking to, their assessment of inflationary pressures here and how businesses and consumers will navigate them? It was the foundation of-- and that was coupled with globalization.

And so, we were able to maybe move manufacturing somewhere where we were able to provide cheaper products, more products to more Americans. I would say sometime in the last 10 years that whole foundation of providing the cheapest products to more Americans has now been reconsidered.

Jobs are now considered to be more important than cheaper prices. I think that is inflationary by itself. I've always said, if we are going to move to a decarbonized world without new technology that is highly inflationary, we are now witnessing that today. This is why I've always been saying a transition from hydrocarbons to something more sustainable has to be done in a fair and just way.

And quite frankly, even before the Russian invasion, many countries were focusing on supply mitigation versus demand mitigation. And so, we were witnessing rising energy prices even before the Russian invasion. All of these are more incrementally inflationary, and what's much more inflationary would be if one has to now re-footprint supply chains maybe to a higher cost area, but it's nearer, with more consistency, with more certainty. Now, in the long run, though, as we build out these redundant supply chains, as we become less dependent, in theory this actually, at the back end, could be deflationary.

And a supply shock that we're witnessing is hard for any central bank to mitigate. So if you believe that much of the inflation is because of supply shock, you're going to probably expect fewer central banks tightening, even in this inflationary environment because that supply shock, ultimately, can be worked out. Maybe it's three years, or four years, or five years, but it can be worked out.

And let's be clear, higher energy prices accelerates the demand for decarbonization, accelerates the need for EV vehicles. And so that's a way you mitigate long-term demand through that process. And so all of this is equalizing. We may be in a period of time of higher inflation that is going to be very damaging for those who least could afford it. Higher inflation is destructive for the entire emerging world.

This is why I have always said, it has to be fair and just. And right now we're not in a fair and just period of time. These are terrible times, what we're witnessing in these humanitarian disasters. But we all should be hopeful that as human beings we do find solutions. And this has not abated my long-term optimism, that we find solutions, we mitigate problems. And through that process, we have a better future. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a massive humanitarian crisis and sent ripple effects across the global economy.

Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, discusses how this economic war is affecting existing supply chain disruptions, inflation and globalization. Carrie King: Welcome to Expert to Expert, a BlackRock Fundamental Equities video series that pairs our investment pros with the business heads, politicians, policymakers and academics who are leaders in their fields and influencers in our global economy.

Our third episode explores the art and science of investing, pairing a BlackRock expert in fundamental research and investing with an authority in behavioral finance. In Part 1 of their three-part conversation, James Bristow and Morgan Housel reflect on living through a most unusual time in history. James Bristow: Hello everybody. It's James Bristow here. I'm really happy to be joined here today to talk about markets with Morgan Housel, who many of you know is the author of The Psychology of Money.

And really the first subject that we're going to discuss is, it comes under the heading, this hasn't been a typical market cycle. When we look at the big drawdown we saw during COVID, and the subsequent recovery, many aspects of the regular playbook haven't really played out in this market, because it's been a unique scenario. And Morgan, I'd love to start with a question for you of, what's your sense of what you saw of how people behaved in that March period when markets took the big drawdown, and how they reacted to how information changed thereafter.

Morgan Housel: Well thank you so much for having me, James. I really appreciate the opportunity to do this It's such a good question. I think to me the biggest difference with what's happened over the last year and a half in the market, is if you compare it to , the last market crash, and was a financial crisis. That was the crisis, was the economic collapse. So that's what people were paying attention to.

The last year and a half has been different because it was a biological crisis. It was a virus. So the stock market collapse that occurred last March was almost a sideshow at the time for most people. Because most people last March were not necessarily paying attention to their portfolio. They were saying, am I going to get a virus that's going to kill me?

Can my kid go to school? Is there enough food at the grocery store? That is what people were worried about last March. So I think for your average investor, in the United States and around the world, what most people were thinking about last March was very different from what they were thinking about in And then of course the other big difference is how quickly it all recovered.

By the time that most people were back towards paying attention to the rest of the world outside of COVID last year, the market was back recovered, at an all-time high in the United States. So it's a very different fundamental than what took place in Now if there is one quirk on this, I would say it is this. If you look at the economic crisis last year, away from the stock market but looking at unemployment, those kind of things, I think made it very easy for people to say this is bad, this is terrible, but this is a one-off crisis.

This is a once-in-a-century event. Whereas now that kind of the same thing occurred with COVID, and you had another economic collapse, tens of millions of people losing their job. I think it's easier for people around the world to suddenly say, maybe this is just how the world works.

Like, fool me once in , but now I realize this happened again. Maybe just every 10 years the world breaks. And this is how the world works. And I actually think that's a pretty good way to think about risk, is that once per decade, roughly on average, the world breaks in a fundamental way. James Bristow: Yeah I think that's right. And one of the most notable statistics I always pull out from that period is, if you look at the GDP, the macroeconomic hit in the U.

But when you look at the size of the fiscal response, and this is before all the monetary policy actions that were taken, that fiscal response was four times the size of what we saw in the GFC. So policy came to the rescue in a way that was really quite unprecedented. And I think, that again, made navigating this environment particularly tricky.

It's just, the numbers are hard to wrap your head around, how big the policy response has been in the last year. So it's a completely different world. James Bristow : If I sort of step back though and relate this to, what did we do and what would an individual investor do at that time, and what it's good to learn from all this?

It comes back to, what is the old cliche of really having a plan? That the plan for us as professional investors was, there are so many great individual companies out there whose stocks have had very significant drawdowns. Let's go through that list and see which we think are just cyclically impaired and which are more structurally impaired, and there are bargains to be had.

But our plan for any drawdown always involves doing that. And for the individual investor, maybe that plan doesn't come at a stock-specific level, but it comes at the level of, how would I allocate my assets? What level of risk would I be comfortable with?

So it just reinforces that fact for all of us, whether individual professional investor, to have a forward-looking plan of, here's what I'm trying to achieve, and here's what I would do in certain circumstances. And we had a great road test of that last year. Morgan Housel: I think there's a weird thing during these crises where, when the future is the most uncertain, when you're in the midst of the deepest uncertainty, there are a lot of people who become the most certain about their views during that time.

So you're right, that if we go back to last spring, there were people who were completely dead set on, this is what the future is going to look like. Usually in a negative way. I just think it's an interesting quirk of behavior in these moments when you're in the trenches. That when the future is the most uncertain, that's when people lock onto their views and grab onto them really tightly. James Bristow: You talked in a recent blog post about pandemic learnings. And you sort of highlighted three of them.

The aspect of what people aren't talking about, the fact that the very concept of exponential growth is not particularly intuitive, and then I think you're surprised at how quickly businesses adapted to this new environment. Just interested which of those you'd really pull out as something that really struck you as a lesson from the pandemic and its aftermath to this point.

Morgan Housel: Yeah, I think the biggest that really struck me, and this is something that I had written about before COVID, but it just became so clear how powerful this concept is, is that risk is what you don't see. And risk is what people aren't talking about. To me, I just think it's astounding that we, in the investing field through no fault of our own, spent a decade discussing the question, what is the biggest economic risk?

That's the question that takes up all the oxygen in the field. And by and large, we talked about things like interest rates, and trade wars, and profit margins, and tax cuts, et cetera, those kind of topics. And then a virus comes and 30 million people lose their jobs in two months. Like it's, in order of magnitude, greater than the risk that we had been discussing for the last decade. And I think if you look historically, it's always like that. That the biggest risk that moves the needle the most are the surprises.

And I think that will always be the case. And that might be disheartening for people to hear, that like the biggest risk is what no one's talking about, but I think that's just the reality of how the world works. Because if something is a surprise, people aren't prepared for it. And if they're not prepared for it, its damage is just amplified and magnified when it arrives.

So September 11th terrorist attacks, COVID, Pearl Harbor, or these kinds of things, that's what makes the biggest difference over your investing lifetime. And I think just becoming more comfortable with that mindset, that forecasting is great, planning is great, having plans is absolutely essential, but the biggest news stories of the next year, of the next 10 years, over the course of the rest of our investing lives are going to be things that you and I, and anyone else, cannot be discussing right now, because they're going to be surprises.

And to me that just kind of pushes room for error in your investing strategy and in your asset allocation. That if you have room for error in your analysis, in your allocations, in your budgets, you don't necessarily need to know exactly what's going to happen next.

You can just kind of ride the waves as they come. And that to me, I think is a better way to think about and manage risk, and just a more realistic way to manage risk, than assuming that we know exactly what's going to happen next. Carrie King: James and Morgan covered a lot of ground. One concept that stood out to me: Have a plan before crisis strikes.

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of Aug.

The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. International investing involves additional risks including, but not limited to, those related to currency fluctuations, illiquidity and volatility. Nifty 16, Delhivery Ltd.

Market Watch. Mutual Funds. ET NOW. Govt asks e-commerce cos to appoint nodal officer for compliance with consumer protection rules The government has asked e-commerce companies to appoint a nodal officer to ensure compliance with the new rules on consumer protection. The rules are applicable to e-commerce entities registered in India, as well as those registered abroad but offering goods and services to Indian consumers.

All News Videos. Indian rupee hits 9-month low on growth worries; bonds await buyback results The partially convertible rupee was at The rupee had ended at World Bank signs fresh loan agreements worth USD 1. Govt has received complaints against some e-commerce firms alleging violation of FDI policy: Piyush Goyal "The government has received complaints against certain e-commerce companies alleging violation of FDI policy and necessary actions under the provisions of Foreign Exchange Management Act, have been taken for investigation by the Enforcement Directorate," Goyal said.

Options on the Chinese currency exceed those referencing the Japanese yen, and buying or selling the yuan is now as cheap as trading the British pound.

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